Monday, July 6, 2015

Greek crisis: what happens in the next 48 hours

from telegraph.co.uk


The key events happening in the next 48 hours - and beyond - in the Greek crisis, after the country's voters rejected the terms of the proposed bailout


Greek political leaders (from L)- Communist party leader, Dimitris Koutsoumbas, Independent Greeks leader, Panos Kamenos , Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, interim New Democracy leader, Vangelis Meimarakis, the River leader, Stavros Theodorakis and Pasok leader Fofi Gennimata, meet with the Greek President, Prokopis Pavlopoulos (C) at the presidental palace in Athens, on July 6, 2015.
Greek political leaders (L-R) Communist party leader, Dimitris Koutsoumbas, Independent Greeks leader Panos Kamenos, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, interim New Democracy leader Vangelis Meimarakis, the River leader Stavros Theodorakis and Pasok leader Fofi Gennimata meet with the Greek President, Prokopis Pavlopoulos (C) at the presidental palace in Athens  Photo: AFP

The next 48 hours will be decisive for the future of Greece, and the Eurozone. Political leaders and central bankers must make two major, linked decisions.
In the long term, they must determine whether there is a future for Greece in the Euro in the wake of a No vote and with Alexis Tsipras as a negotiating partner - and by extension, whether to press on with talks for a bailout package. Many states warned that a No vote would amount to the end of the road, their taxpayers' patience run dry.

Pensioners are given priority tickets as they wait to receive part of their pensions at a National Bank branch in Athens on Monday (Reuters)
In the immediate term, they must decide whether they can maintain the emergency cash support that is keeping Greece's ruined banks from collapse. Without the maintainance of €88 billion of emergency loans, the major banks could topple within days - forcing Greece to introduce a new currency.
Timeline: What next for Greece after 'No' vote?
Key events in the next 48 hours and beyond for the Greek crisis
Today (Mon 6 July)
EU institution talks
Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council of member states, and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chair of the Eurogroup of single currency users, and Mario Draghi, the chair of the European Central Bank, will hold a morning conference call
ECB decision on emergency liquidity
The European Central Bank Governing Council, comprised of member states, will meet. They will discuss whether emergency liquidity - kept in place for the referendum - can legally and politically be maintained.
Hollande and Merkel meeting
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, and Francois Hollande, the French president, will meet for dinner at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Europe's founding fathers are split. France is Greece's last defender, and believes a deal can still be done. More broadly, it believes that the euro must be more democratic, less coercive if a series of Greek-style rebellions are to be avoided. Germany, Greece's sternest critic, believes the country should serve as a lesson: stick with the reforms programmes, enforce fiscal discipline from the centre, or chaos will ensue.
Tuesday 7 July
European Parliament address
Mr Tusk and Mr Juncker are expected to address Europe's elected representatives at the Parliament in Strasbourg. Nigel Farage is lined up to speak. Expect oratorical fireworks.
Eurozone heads summit
The Eurozone heads of government will meet in Brussels. They last convened last Saturday, the morning after Alexis Tsipras tore up a Euro 1.5 billion bailout deal by calling a referendum.
Looming deadlines
Any day this week
With or without emergency liquidity, Greek banks are likely to run dry.
July 13
Greece must find another Euro 465 million currently owed to the IMF. It is already in default.
July 20
Most crucially, on July 20 it must find Euro 3.5 billion to pay the European Central Bank. Default on this will force the withdrawal of those emergency bank loans. Financial collapse and Grexit follows.



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